Hand Analysis and Reading Opponents

It's been a while since I posted anything so I'll get you caught up on my action before we go into 2 hands I want to discuss.  First, while Mom and Grandma were in Vegas, I signed up for a Heads'Up Tournament in Lake Charles at the Isle of Capris. I defeated a few opponents to cash in this tournament. It was quite fun and my first live heads'up T. I'm going to look to play in a few more of those in the future. (Oh, one other bonus. I was the only girl and a few of my rather cocky male opponents were crushed by my poker prowess after underestimating me!)

Then I played a small T at Coushatta in Kinder and cashed for $2000. Everybody kept wanting to chop, but my goal was to walk away with $2k so I kept blocking the chop talk until we knocked out enough players to meet my goal.  Mission accomplished!

Then we went down to the Beau Rivage in Biloxi and I played a $350 tournament there. The tournament went really well for me. I got lucky and I played great too. After 14 hours of play we chopped the prize pool 17 ways. I walked away with $6500.

Exhausted from all that play and then waiting another 2 hours to get paid, I lost about $1500 over the next two days. But I still managed to come back to Baton Rouge with a bankroll sufficient for me to move up from the $4-$8 limit and into the $2-$5 no limit game.

We played in New Orleans a week or so ago and I lost about $900 in the $1-$2 game, but I played pretty well all in all. So I wasn't too upset about the loss. I felt like I did all that I could. A few times my opponents sucked out to win the big pots. Here's one hand in particular. This one has to do with reading opponents.  I had something like A8. On the flop there was an 8 and a K and some other rag card. I checked. The big blind checked and the next guy bet $20. I read him a weak so I called. The BB, who had raised pre-flop figured that his pocket J's were beat with that guy betting and me calling so he folded the best hand here.  Now that it was just the two of us and I figured he did have anything, I bet $40 thinking he would fold on the turn. He did not fold, but called instead. That confused me a bit. Another K hit the river and I checked. The guy bet about $65.  This really had me wondering if I'd been wrong all along. While I'm thinking about it I'm "shuffling" my hole cards. I notice that he catches this move from the corner of his eye and his eyes move from my eyes to my cards. I'm wondering here, did he think I was folding? I think he wants me to fold. Usually when someone has a big hand they'll look at your "chips" to imagine them in their own stack. But he looked at my cards! He was also leaning over the table and staring me down (something he had not done before when he did have big hands). I decided to stick with my originial analysis that he didn't have anything all along and the K on the river couldn't have helped so I called. He had total air and I won the pot. That's the first time I'd noticed a player looking at my cards...

That takes me to this week. I was playing at the Belle in Baton Rouge in the $2-$5 no limit game. We'd been playing for a while so all the players were familiar with each other. I raised to $20 with 55 in middle position. I got 4 callers. (A nit player, a donkey caller, and two guys that like to see flops). The flop came down Kh Qh 5d. Wooo hooo! I just flopped a set. Now, let's make some money. I don't like the flush/straight draws so I don't want to mess around too much. The first 2 check. I bet $65. The nit calls. One of the "likes to see a flop" guys calls. And the donkey caller, calls. The turn is a 6c. Thank goodness that didn't make anyone's straight or flush. The first two check to me. I decide that I want to bet enough to take the pot down right here.  No need to allow those pesky draws to see the river. I bet $300. The nit calls! What the heck? The other two fold. So the easy to beat players are out and the guy who usually has the nuts is in the hand. What's going on here? He was supposed to fold. The river is a Jd. That card doesn't make a flush but it could make a straight. I decide that along with that card being a scare card for me, the pot is big enough (and what can he be calling with?) so I check. He shoves in an intimidating stack of green chips - $500! Now I go into the tank.

I think I spent the next 5 minutes going over the hand. I really thought I had the best hand. What just happened? He's looking at me to see what I'm going to do. I look at him and ask, "Ace-ten?" He looks away. What's that mean? Is he looking away because I called his hand? Is he looking away because his hand is much weaker than a straight? "Ace ten of hearts? really?," I say.  No reaction from him. I'm shuffling my cards and he looks at them. What? Did he just look at my cards? Is he looking for me to fold?  Ok, did he slow play pocket K's or Q's? No, I don't think so. I think he would have reraised with one of those two hands either pre-flop or on the flop. Did he turn a set of 6's? No, I don't think he called $65 on the flop with a medium pair to hunt out a set on the turn. Ace ten of hearts? really? No. I don't think he called THREE HUNDRED DOLLARS on the turn with a draw - no matter how big.  It would have been foolish to call a pot sized bet on the turn with a gut shot/flush/royal draw. But some people can't away from royal draws. By this time, I'm really contemplating folding here. If I call and lose I'll have about $120 left to take home and go home a $780 loser on the night. I'm holding my cards up and the players to my left and right can see them at this point. But I'm still working my way through this hand. This guy hasn't been able to look at me ever since I asked him it he had Ace ten. Ace ten of hearts is the only hand that makes sense here. Wait a minute. KQ also makes sense. In fact, KQ makes more sense. I just don't think he would have called the $300 on the turn. I say to Mom, "I think we're going home after this hand, win or lose." By now, I am comfortable with my decision no matter what he has. My voice is almost a whisper, "I call". He turns to look at me. The dealer says, "What? You call?" I say, "Yes, I call". He turns up KsQs. YES! I turn up my pocket 5's and take down the $2000 pot.

It turns out that it was a huge decision for me. But the thing that had me calling the most, was something I saw in his face. Something I can't describe. There was just something there when I first asked him if he had Ace-Ten. Maybe a micro-expression. Maybe it was something that my subconscious understood better than my conscious mind, but something told me to call and to be ok with it either way.  So really, even though my brain said, "fold he's got to have the nuts." Another part of me said, "call." Since I was having an inner struggle I took the time to go through the hand in my mind and to make a conscious decision that Ace ten didn't actually make that much sense... not with HIM. Another donkey caller - yes, but not HIM.

In the end, I was ok with it. If he turned up AhTh, then that would be that. But I was about 90% certain I had the winner after taking the time to work through the hand before calling.

That's it for now. Time to get ready to go win some more money!