A Quick Hand Analysis

All I can say is, math works for and against everybody equally. Some people call it luck. But, really , it's just that sometimes, some crazy stuff happens.

So, I'm playing online in a 9 player sit-n-go for $100.  One player (an actor from ER) has already been elimated. You start with 1500 in these tourneys so it's helpful to catch a double up somewhere along the way if you hope to make it to the final 3 and make some cash.  I have 10,10 in the small blind. Blinds are 30/60, and I have 1275 to start the hand.  The guy who knocked out the actor raises from the cutoff to 180 (a standard 3x the BB raise). I rarely give too much credit to button and cutoff raises in these quick tournaments so I think my 10's are the best hand. Of course, I don't really want to see an Ace, King, or Queen on the flop.

The button folds. I reraise to 360, leaving me with 945. Ok, one more point to note, when I have less than 1000 in these sit-n-go's I get nervous. You don't have much after-the-flop folding equity if you have less than 1000 and make a preflop raise. The big blind folds and I'm head's up with the other raiser who calls my reraise. The flop comes 2d, 9s, Jc. That's a good flop for my hand. I think it's possible but unlikely that he flopped a pair with the Jack. It's a rainbow flop and I doubt he'll want to play a big pot with a straight draw. So, I go for the check raise. I check.

Of his now 2630 stack he bets 240. That looks like a standard continuation bet and the pot is now 1020. I have 945 left and would really like to just take the pot down here. I raise all-in. So this is the point at which you might want to try to guess at what you think my opponent has. 

Ideas?

Ok, I'll go on. He calls my all in bet, and I see that he has 99 for a set. Ugh. I now have to hit one of 2 tens left in the deck... and I do! Right there on the turn comes the 10 of clubs. A meaningless Ace hits the river and I double up.

Math? Well, mathematically, I'm a HUGE favorite preflop with the over pair. But there IS a POSSIBILITY that my opponent might spike one of the 2 remaining 9's in the deck to beat me and he does. Then, after the flop I'm a HUGE DOG. But the ten comes and I feel like everything is right with the world. The best pre-flop hand won regardless of the crazy cards.

Of course, my opponent then calls me an idiot in the chat screen and starts saying something (probably calling me bad names) in another language. So, whatever... I don't care what anybody calls me as long as I am the one who drags the chips into my stack.